Note: The difference between U.S. liquid fuels and crude oil production represents production of hydrocarbon gas liquids, biofuels, and refinery processing gain. Non-OPEC supply disruptions include both crude oil and liquid fuels, while OPEC disruptions include only crude oil. Growth in oil production and supply disruptions represents changes since January 2011.
Record-setting over the past few years, although differences in quality and location suggest that the substitution may not be exactly 1-for-1. U.S. liquid fuels production, which includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, biofuels, and refinery processing gain, grew by more than 4.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) from January 2011 to July 2014, of which 3.0 million bbl/d was crude oil production growth. During that same period, global unplanned supply disruptions grew by 2.8 million bbl/d.
U.S. production growth, the main factor counterbalancing the supply disruptions on the global oil market, has contributed to a decrease in crude oil price volatility since 2011. Over the past 13 months, the monthly average Brent price has moved within a , between $ 107 per barrel and $ 112 per barrel. In contrast, the range of monthly average Brent prices over the prior 13-month period (June 2012-June 2013) was $ 21 per barrel.
Note: Non-OPEC supply disruptions include both crude oil and liquid fuels, while OPEC disruptions include only crude oil.
Global unplanned supply disruptions averaged 3.2 million bbl/d during the first seven months of 2014 and peaked at 3.5 million bb/d in May 2014. The current level of supply disruptions is the highest since the Iraq-Kuwait War (1990-91), when supply disruptions peaked at 4.3 million bbl/d, based on data from the International Energy Agency.
Principal contributor: Asmeret Asghedom
